WebText- GEOGRAPHY OF
Chapter 12 –
DRAFT webtext by G. Atwood, with major, ongoing revisions in 2014. The purpose of this web-text is for students of Geography of Utah to have written materials to study. These chapters, particularly ones on human geography are draft. Utah's human geography changes more rapidly than its physical geography. Texts even from 2006 no longer portray an up to date sense of the state due to dramatic impacts of the Great Recession.
Use with professional
courtesy and attribution including attribution of original sources where
indicated.
NOTE: Students of GEOG3600
Geography of Utah are expected to view Dr Pamela Perlich (awesome) lecture on Issues of Demographics, Economics and
Chapter 12 - Utah Geography and Utah's Demographic... subtitle:
“Demographics is Destiny”…
So…
what can we expect? and what can we explain?
Utah has about 3 million people (2.7 million in 2000), is highly urban with almost half of its population centered in Salt Lake County. I have not checked the statement that 80% of Utah's population lives in 3% of its area, and I have not checked that 80% of Utah's population lives within 50 miles of the Wasatch Fault Zone and its continuation to the Hurricane Fault in Washington County. The state's population is young, healthy, White, dominantly LDS, and Republican. WIthing the state is considerable spatial variability not just of physical geography but of human geography. Students of Geography of Utah should be able to analyze patterns at a county level after studying this chapter.
BIG CONCEPTS:
1, Utah is both in-step and out-of-step with respect to the Nation's demographics. As a sweeping generality, National demographic trends affect Utah but with a time lag. With respect to demographics, Utah becomes more like the Nation with time. Reminder... Utah is not uniform. Some regions of Utah are more like the Nation in their demographics than others. View Dr Perlich lecture. For example: Utah's family sizes are larger than the Nations. The Nation's average family size has been dropping for decades. Utah's family size has also been dropping. Within Utah there are counties more similar to the Nations demographics (Salt Lake County) and others that are outliers such as Utah County. Utah County's high percentage of students and young married couples with babies is both a Utah and National outler. This torques sevveral of Utah County's statistics, such as: average age, average family size, sex, health, and housing. However Utah County is not a consistent outlier for other characteristics such as language or ancestry where counties such as Kane and Garfield Counties stand out. LINK. Caution: Kane and Garfield may look anomalous due to the "tyranny of small numbers." When populations are small, a relatively small increase in numbers can result in apparently dramatic shifts in trends that are interesting to study but may not be indicative of a trend.
Population distribution: Utah is a highly urban state.
Utah, as with most of the Nation, is highly urbanized, USCensus-CNSR29-page9-Percent Urban Population, 1900, 1950, 2000. In 1900, Utah had been a state for only 4 years. Compared to Colorado and California, it was decidedly less populous and less urban. However, compared to the neighboring states of New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho, Utah in 1900 was already more urban. Note how in 1950, Utah stands out as more urban than all its neighbors, most of the states of the midwest and even the coasts. In this regard, Utah "led" the National trend depicted for 2000 when the average urban populace as a percent of total populace was 79%, compared to 64% in 1950, and 39.6% in 1900. Note: the USCensus uses terms urban, rural, suburban, central cities, and urban clusters to give insightes to population distribution. Rural versus urban may have been more dichotomous in 1900 than in 1950 with the rise of suburbs, or today's migrations to and from core cities. Geographers of Utah are wise to think critically about the evolution of these terms as well as the evolution of population distributions across the state. For example, note how Salt Lake County ranks high in the number of farms and agricultural lands established during the past decade (need this map). .
Many Easterners assume the American West shares common heritage with similar human geographies. They imagine a Wild West with cowboys and ranches, a West of Wyomings. Not so for Utah. Our pioneer heritage is less a land of cowboys, more a land of farmers and middle-class shopkeepers. Utah's LDS heritage has been one of communities, even communal enterprises. It should be no surprise that Utah has a history of being highly urban, meaning, most people live in cities USCensus-Percent Population Residing in Urban Areas by County. That being said, Utah, similar to states of the Intermountain West, is not as populous and does not have the density of urban areas of most states, such as West- and East-coastal states of the conterminous US, USCensus-Urbanized Areas and Urban Clusters 2010. Note how six of Utah's counties have "no urban population" specifically, Rich, Daggett, Piute, Wayne, and Garfield. For Wasatch Front counties and Washington County, over 80% of the counties' populace lives in urban areas, meaning urbanized areas and urban clusters. Examine the USCensus Census2000: Utah Profile that displays population density by census tract. Note the high concentration along Utah's Wasatch Line (geosphere). Also note the red dot showing the Utah mean center of population, meaning, that Utah's center of mass for population is now south of Salt Lake County, into northern Utah County. Also note that several counties with more than one census tract such as Grand County appear to have less populous areas than those with only one census tract such as San Juan County. Cartography can rule... and can mislead.
Utah has consistently gained population at a relatively steady pace with respect to the Nation.
USCensus-CNSR29 page 14 shows Percent Change in Population for state of the conterminous US from 1880 to 1970. Note how Utah consistently gained through the years, never growing as fast as the fastest growing states, and never losing population as did states of the Midwest during the Great Depression or neighboring Intermountain states due to boom-bust mining and/or speculation.
Population numbers are reflected in States' number of representatives to Congress. USCensus-Map-US-Change in Congressional Apportion from 1930 to 2000. The map shows losses in the numbers of Representatives From MidAtlantic states and across the MidWest, and gains south and west. Idaho and Wyoming have the same number of Representatives today as in 1930. Utah has gained one Representative compared to 3 for Colorado and 2 for Nevada, and 33 for California. Utah is the only state with a gain of only one, and this can be interpreted as steady but not aggressive gains in population.
Population change for states comes from the balance of births, deaths, and migration. As a sweeping generality, Utah's birth rate is higher than for the Nation and population gains from natural increase. Utahn's longevity is greater than for most of the country but the state's proportion of elderly is smaller. Changes in migration significantly impact the rate of increase to Utah's population. Utah's natural resources, specifically mining and energy producation, have a history of boom and bust with accompanying influx and outgo of labor. In recent years, in-migration of persons with Hispanic heritage has resulted in increases in Utah's population (Dr Perlich presents an analysis for the Wasatch Front, for Utah, and for the Nation).
Age distribution: Utah is a young state. Utah’s population, on average, is younger than that of the Nation with proportionately more children and proportionately fewer elderly. June 2014 - "Utah is still the youngest state in the Nation - Detailed Demographic Data" http://ecclesextra.business.utah.edu/category/utah-data-guide/
USCensus-CNSR29-Ch04-p50's map of median age of states' populations shows Utah Texas and Alaska as well below the Nation's median age of 35.3.
USCensus-CNSR29-Ch04-p54-Median Age, 2000, by county shows Daggett, Piute and Kane Counties above the Nation's median age of 35.3 years old, and most of Utah's counties well below (25 - 30 years old). Utah, Iron and Cache Counties stand out as the youngest. The correlation with their universities is inescapable.
USCensus-CNSR29-Ch04-p53-Population 85 and older, 2000, by county shows how counties of several states of the Midwest had more elderly, and how counties of several Intermountain states had fewer elderly. The Nation's average percent of population 85 and older was 1.5 percent. The map indicates that only Piute County had above the national average.
USCensus-CNSR29-Ch04-p56-Population Under 18 years, 2000, by county indicates that the average for the Nation was 25.7 percent under 18 years. All Utah's counties except Daggett County are above the Nation's average for population under 18 having average percentages between 20% to 25.6%.
Mean age is the average age, of a population. Median age is the age at which half the population is older and half is younger. Note how Utah stands out in USCensus-CNSR-29-page50 Map of Median Age, 2000. Texas, Alaska, and Puerto Rico also stand out for young populations. Geographers naturally wonder "why those states?" Surely economic geography, sociology, and location will play into the explanation.
WIthin Utah there is variability. USCensus CNSR-29page54 - Median Age 2000 is a map showing relative median ages of counties. Note how cartography may torque interpretation with Utah's generous sized counties looking evenly populated and Louisiana's parishes looking more age-diverse. Even so, Utah stands out as relatively young fro most os its counties, with only Daggett, Kane and Piute above the national median age of 38.3. Students of Geography of Utah should be able to analyze Table 1.5 - Median age by County, Zick and Smith, 2006, Chapter 1 by Smith and Carmalt p 15 Table 1.5 that shows Utah and Cache Counties with lowest median age and Daggett and Kane with the highest median age. By analyze, what Geographers of Utah should be able to analyze are the relationships of median age to each of the 15 themes of Geography of Utah. Hmmmm: great exam question.
Age structure largely determines future
population trends. Anticipated population trends underpin many public policies. Population pyramids and dependency ratios give clues to the future and impact public policies.
The human geography of the United States, the American West, and Utah can be appreciated by recognizing spatial patterns at divers scales. For example, by appreciating the human geography of states within the US, one can better appreciate the human geography of our Nation. By recognizing and thinking critically about age and sex structures of Utah's counties, one is thinking critically about Utah's future. Geography of Utah argues that critial thinking about spatial patterns within counties, is one path toward civic engagement.
Patterns of age and sex are two of the most powerful drivers of public policy at State and County levels. Although Utah is decidedly young compared to Nation (___ compared to ___), Utah's population also is aging. The "dependency ratio" is a demographic trait that compares the number of people of working age to other elements of the population such as to youth or to the elderly. The idea is that the young and old depend on working persons for support, be it taxes or income. Governmental entities and others anyalyze dependency ratios, for example to anticipate the need for services, or to study the ability of societies to cope. High dependency ratios, meaning few workers per dependence, implies a need for services for the dependents and may imply a need for higher taxes per working population to provide, for example, for education for youth or services for elderly. Human geography of Utah indicates that working populace is spatially concentrated where there are jobs, and dependants also are not randomly located. The result of spatial diversity expresses itself with spatially diverse needs for services, for example, for health services (babies in Utah County and the elderly in Piute County); education (youth dependants); and even crime (youthful and young adult males).
Dependency ratios are just one type of demographic projection. Universities use demographics to project student enrollment. Student enrollment impacts demands for space, the need for teaching faculty, and funding for research. Planners in the 1970s attempted to plan for energy developments projected to bring jobs disproportionately to eastern Utah and also projected to bring the attendant "3-Ds... divorce, dilinquency, and drunkeness." Planners for the LDS Church anticipate changes in suburban areas with ward houses and even Temples and work to have sufficient leadership in some urban wards.
The dependency ratios for 2000 by county are shown in three maps:
Zick and Smith (2006) Utah at the Beginning of the New Millenium has chapters that further analyze 2000 dependency ratios for Utah, specifically Chapter 1 - From the Trailhead to the Summit of Utah's Age Pyramid. Smith and Carmalt conclude that Utah, in 2000, compared to other states and the District of Columbia, had the highest dependency ratio for preschool age children to working age; the highest dependency ratio for school age per working age; and was next to lowest dependency ratio for retirement age per working age (Alaska had an even lower ratio).
Some would argue it is no surprise that expenditures per capita for children in Utah is among the Nation's lowest. Of course, that is way simplistic. During the 1970s, Utah claimed to have the highest per household expenditures per student for education while having the lowest per capita expenditure. As the Nation's dependency ratios have changed with most states having less youth dependency (fewer children, more workers results in less dependency), the funding per student calculated per household or per student climbed with little public outcry or legislative intervention. However, Utah's youth dependency has not dropped proportionately and therefore both the per capita and per household investment in childhood education has dropped in comparison, for example to Connecticut or Indiana (note: this needs to be verified).
Population pyramids show populations' age structure and gender
structure
Evidence: Reminder: credit the primary source, see intro paragraph of this chapter.
USCensus-CNSR29-Ch04-p50-PopulationPyramids for the US for 1900, 1950, and 2000
USCensus UTAH PROFILE Population Pyramids and Population Data and Map by Census Tract for 2000
USCensus UTAH PROFILE Population Pyramids and Population Data and Map by Census Tract for 2010
Population pyramids show abundant information about the past and the future demographics of a population and clues to its sociology and culture. Population pyramids iinterpreted for detail and for general trends. General trends include a visible portrayal of dependency ratios. Interpretations for detail, specifically, the ratio of the age slices, can be used for to project specific impacts dependent on age such as the number of students entering junior high school.
The shape of the pyramid is defined by the stacking of slices representing number of populace per age bracket. Demographers can look at the shape of a pyramid and interpret (a) impacts on future population mix; and (b) interpret societal characteristics such as infant mortality as a proxy for poverty. The reason that poplation pyramids can be used for such interpretations is that each age slice has within it information about: births, deaths, and migration. Put differently, pyramids that are broad across their base (squat, triangular pyramids, narrower and narrower for each ascending age slice and pointed at the top) indicate high birthrate (broad base) and high death rate (dramatic loss age slice by age slice). Note, such losses could be out-migration. A hypothetical (semantically impossible) rectangular pyramid, with moderate base and equally ascending slices could be interpreted as balanced birth rate, and death rate compensated by in-migration. Rectangular means zero growh. Tall and tapering upward indicates slow growth. Tall and tapering downward indicates negative growth. Pyramids that are narrow at their base indicate low birth rates and even below replacement such as The Netherlands. Pyramids with broad bases indicate high birth rates such as the Malaysia. Broad first-two-age slices (birth to five; five to ten years old) compared to "older" slices indicate high birth rate and high rates of infant and child mortality.
In the US Census, Census 2000: Utah Profile, note the uneven widths of the population slices from ages 0 to 30. The lowest (slice of 1 - 5 years old) is anomalously wide for Utah compared to the Nation in 2000 (USCensus-CNSR29-Ch4-p50-Population Pyramids for the US, 1900, 1950, 2000). Note how the population pyramid for Utah in 2000 (USCensus-Census2000: Utah Profile) resembles that of the Nation for the 1950s rather than that of the Nation for 2000. It would be naive to think that Utahns would fully endorse public policies based on the Nation's population pyramid on issues that are highly sensitive to the shape of Utah's population pyramid.
Zick and Smith 2006 discuss Utah's populatin pyramid and its broad base Zick and Smith, 2006, Chapter 1 by Smith and Carmalt p6Figure 1.3 Dr Perlich analyzes population trends for Utah based on populatin pyramids with more recent data and specifically for the Wasatch Front as well as for the Nation.
Population pyramids also depict sex ratios. Sex ratios are calculate simply as the number of women compared to the number of men. Historically there have been significant regional patterns, USCensus-CNSR29-page51-Sex Ratios by State, 1900, 1950, and 2000. The most dramatic trend is the shift in mortality of women. It is easy to forget how dangerous child birth was for women well into the mid-20th Century. Reduction of infant mortality alone has changed calculations of total population longevity. Note how the sex ratio of 1900 includes all of the midwestern and western US as dark blue, more than 105 men for 100 women. By 1950, the region had shrunk to the Intermountain states, including Utah, and also Alaska. By 2000 only Alaska has a sex ratio of over 105 men to 100 women. States of the Intermountain West continue to average more men than women, but to a lesser degree. Geographer's are meant to be ever conscious of challenges of "MAUP" the modifiable area unit problem, meaning, that information changes as one changes scale. A map at a state scale will carry less information than at a county scale. Examing the USCensus-CNSR29-page60 Sex Ratio 2000 mapped by county. Sex ratios appear less dramatic and to have less contrast than by state. The historic regional pattern of significantly more males is still apparent for much of the Intermountain West, but not for Utah. Mountainous portions of Colorado and all of Alaska and Nevada stand out as consistently far above the Nation's average sex ratio of 96.3. Utah presents a mixed picture. Carbon County is surprisingly more female considering its coal mining industry. Beaver, Daggett, and Summit Counties appear to have the highest sex ratio however the patterns don't seem to carry a strong message other than that, on January 1, 2000, there may have been an abundance of young males enjoing Park City's great snow!
Utah and the Nation are experiencing changes in race and Hispanic origin. Evidence and discussion
NOTE: Reminder: credit the primary source, see intro paragraph of this chapter. Reference the image or pdf name beginning with USCensus not www.earthscienceeducation etc.
SUMMARY of USCensus - CENSR-29 - Chapter 3 - Race and Hispanic Origin. For the past two centuries, the Nation has been predominantly white. Immigration affects racial and ethnic percentages. Most recently, immigration of Hispanic origin has changed patterns of diversity. The Nation is becoming increasingly diverse. Utah is becoming increasingly diverse. "In 1900, 1 out of 8 Americans was of a reace toher than White. By 2000, that proportion had incresed to about 1 out of 4" p 29, ibid and the changes from 1970 to the present are largely explained by the growth of Hispanic and Asian populaces LINK. National patterns of increase of Hispanic populace show influence of geography, speciifcally, location with respect to Mexico and therefore Central America.
For additional information, read the primary document of the USCensus CENSR-29:
The map on page 31 (ibid) Race and Hispanic Diversity, 2000, is a portrayal of race and Hispanic diversity, 2000. I believe its intent is to show patterns of racial diversity and impact of Hispanic contribution by county. It shows patterms within Utah rather than, for example the USCensus map of states with percentage other than white. Note by state how Utah has greater diversity of "other than White" than Idaho, Wyoming and Montana inthe Intermountain West, and is similar to Colorado. By county, on the map depicting Race and Hispanic Diversity by county in 2000, only in one county of Utah, San Juan County, is the probability greater than 50% that "two randomly selected people of a county would be of different races or that only one of the two would be Hispanic" p 30 (ibid). San Juan County has a high percentage of Native Americans, specifically Navajo and Ute.
Note: "the federal government considers race and ethnicity to be separate concepts. ... The Hispanic-origin population is defined as an ethinc grou for federal statistical purposes and Hispanics may be any race" page 28 ibid. For the purposes of Geography of Utah, note spatial patterns of White, non-White, Black, Asian, Pacific Islander, Native American, Hispanic, and should there be other information, other racial and / ethnic groups. The goal of Geography of Utah is limited: recognize patterns, appreciate big influences of the 15 Themes of Geography of Utah, and appreciate importance into the future. NOTE: comments on how to improve this chapter are appreciated.
Patterns of race, Black population: Nationally, the Great Migration of Blacks from the South to the Northeast, midwest and California, poignantly told in The Warmth of Other Suns, was post Civil War, post Reconstruction. It ran from the 1890s to the 1960 Civil Rights movement. Compared to the National average, much of the Intermountain West has had fewer Black populace that the rest of the Nation, and Utah has consistently had a small Black population. (See examination by Zick and Smith, below.) Map from USCensus fact finder map showing percentage of Black populace by counties 1990 (dated but of interest for patterns), note the key shows national average.
Patterns of race, Asian polulation: The West, including the Intermountain West of 1900 had a higher percentage of Asians than the Midwest, East or South. In 2000, according to the USCensus map, Asian populace is highly concentrated in California, and above average in Nevada, Washington, Virginia, and a few populace states of the Northeast. Asian poplace of Utah has been explained as historical with the completion of the trans-continental railroad in 1969 in Box Elder County; and the need for miners during the late 1800s and early 1990s. Discrimination against Asians was rampant, including in Utah. Topaz, a Japaneze internment camp of World War II was located in Millard County. Looking at the map showing percent Asian in 2000, USCensus, one notes that Utah now has fewer than the national average of Asian populace, and that Asian populace of the Intermountain West other than Utah is even more diminished. The following map shows similar information by county, data from 1990 USCensus-1990-percentage of population, Asian.
For comparison, but, beware, this map by county also is for 1990 and out of date: USCensus-1990-percentage of population, Hispanic
Note spatial patterns within Utah by county for percent of population in 2000, USCensus CNSR-29 p 32; White Non Hispanic 2000; and Black Population 2000. All Utah counties other than San Juan County were above the national average for percentage White Non Hispanic; and all Utah counties were below the national average for percent of Black population. Note how most of the counties of the Wasatch Front and Uinta Basin, although overwhelmingly white have somewhat more diversity (percent of White non Hispanic 70 - 90 %) compared to most western and southern counties. One can wonder why the patterns (certainly contributions of Hispanics) and how much has changed in the past 15 years (Geographers of Utah, watch Dr Perlich lecture, linked on course Canvas page).
Fertility:
Zick and Smith, 2006, Chapter 1, Figure 1.4 - Age specific fertility rates: Utah and US 1980 - 2000 shows at least two trends: (1) Utah's fertility rate is consistently higher than that of the Nation; (2) fertility rates (remember this is now over a decade-old data) have fallen nation-wide and in Utah. Dr Perlich discusses trends in detail (see lecture on course Canvas page). Birth rates and fertility are related. See links to Zick and Smith, below.
Life expectancy: Utahns live longer than the average Americans.
Although
UTAH EVIDENCE and SIGNIFICANCE.
Here is a compilation of figures from Zick and Smith (2006) that may be helpful for examining spatial variability of demographics across Utah. Zick and Smith is a wonderful book which analyzes data from the 2000 Census. The Great Depression of 2007 has had such a profound impact on Utah and the Nation that the book now is dated.. .but still useful.
Zick
and Smith, 2006, Chapter One – From the Trailhead to the Summit of Utah’s Age
Pyramid; age structure in Utah, by Ken R. Smith and Julie H. Carmalt -- Population pyramids -- Figure 1.1- 1980;
Figure 1.2 – 1990; Figure 1.3 – 2000
Dependency ratios by county shown as maps – Figure 1.7 (youth dependency); Figure 1.8 (retirement age dependency) and total dependency ratio Figure 1.9; Note how the most populous county's dependency ratio, for example for retirement, can outweigh smaller county's.
Zick
and Smith, 2006, Chapter Two – High Utah Fertility, implications for quality of
life, by Kristen Sturgill and Tim B
Heaton – Graph of Utah vs the Nation, Figure 2.1
Zick
and Smith, 2006, Chapter 5 – Dyin’ in Zion longevity and mortality in Utah, by
Ken R. Smith and Sven E. Wilson; Table 5.3 shows Utahns live longer that
residents of other states, credit to National Center for Health Statistics;
Table 5.4 shows spatial variations within Utah (by county) for longevity for men and for
women, credit to Murray et al.
For
role of migration – See iTunesU March 22, 2012 Lecture by Dr Perlich. Her lecture includes Census 2010 figures that, for example, update Figures 17.01-Minority share of the population and 17.02-Minority share of the population of Utah and the United States.
Quotation:
Demographics is destiny
LINK to The 15 Words of
GEOG3600 and version
that can be printed.
CASES:
Topics… Questions to Ponder –
How have
How will they change in your
lifetime?
So what? How have / will the
changes affect you?
Overarching Goal of the Chapter:
Look at the people you
interact with and recognize how demographics affect you. … your job (or lack of
one) … your life style, your sense of place. How are population patterns of
MAJOR CONCEPT:
Addendum / clarification /
expansion on the “major concept”…
Location matters. Some areas
of
Specifics: by the end of this chapter… you should:
Be able to discuss news
articles about
Recognize how demographics
affects you.
Coaching for students of UofU GEOG3600-Geography of
You’ve memorized the Five
Themes of Geography. (Location, Place, Interaction, Migration/Movement, and
Region), now, memorize the five issues of social and behavioral sciences we’ll
explore in Part II of the course:
DEMOGRAPHICS
ECONOMICS
POLITICS
SOCIOLOGY
ANTRHOPOLOGY
Terms to understand with respect to DEMOGRAPHICS
Understand these terms (a)
because they indicate mastery of content, and (b) for the mid-term (use your
own words) or on quizzes
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population pyramid
Birth rate
Death rate
Natural increase
Net migration
Age structure of a population
Gender structure of a
population
Dependency ratios (youth
dependency; retirement age dependency, total dependency ratio)
Longevity
THEORY / CONCEPTS towards an understanding of DEMOGRAPHICS
and geography of
FINAL SECTION OF THIS CHAPTER… So What?
GeogUtah
Mantra. That’s the underlying assumption of UofU GEOG3600-Geography of
Understanding leads to a
sense of place… understand
Tie DEMOGRAPHICS to others of
the 15 Themes of Geography of Utah. See the web of relationships among
For DEMOGRAPHICS… webs will
be immediately apparent for the four other issues of social and behavioral
science. But think about how demographics affects water (the HYDROSPHERE); and
how it is linked to MOVEMENT. Are any of the 15 themes of Geography of Utah not
woven in some way into webs of relationships with DEMOGRAPHICS?
LIST of “The 15 Words”
Loc
Place
Migra
Inter
Region
Geo
Hydro
Atmo
Bio
Anthro
Econ
Demog
PoliSci
Sociol
QLife
SELF QUIZ
What are demographics?
Why would folks say…
demographics is destiny?
As you look around you… do
you see some of the patterns that are in the “Evidence” section…
And as you think about
demographics of a place (school, school district, community, county) in
Could you enjoy exploring the
following question: Compare and contrast the youth dependency ratio of
SUMMARY:
